Venstre leader announces attempt to form a minority right-wing government in Denmark without Lars Løkke... What does this mean and what are the upcoming scenarios?

Denmark is currently experiencing a critical phase in government formation negotiations following the 2026 elections. The crux of the matter is that Troels Lund Poulsen, leader of the Venstre party, has announced his intention to form a minority center-right government comprising three parties: Venstre, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Alliance. In the Danish media, this formula is abbreviated as VLAK, referring to Venstre, the Liberal Alliance, and the Conservatives. Together, these three parties hold only 46 seats, falling far short of the 90-seat majority required in the Danish parliament.

The Danish parliament doesn't necessarily require a government with an absolute majority from day one. The Danish parliamentary system is based on what's called "negative parliamentarism," meaning a government can begin its work as long as there isn't a majority of 90 or more members against it. Therefore, a minority government can effectively govern if the other parties don't agree to bring it down, and then seek support from other parties when passing legislation. This explains why Troels Lund Poulsen is trying to form a government with only 46 seats; the problem isn't securing 90 permanent supporters, but rather avoiding having 90 members against him.

The biggest obstacle now is Lars Løkke Rasmussen, leader of the Moderate Party and former prime minister. After about seven weeks of negotiations with Mette Frederiksen, he withdrew from the coalition talks and backed Troels Lund Poulsen instead. This move triggered a new royal round (a meeting between each party leader and the King of Denmark to authorize the leader of the coalition negotiations). Rasmussen had been pushing for a broad-based, centrist government, rather than a purely right-wing one relying on the support of right-wing parties. Therefore, Troels Lund Poulsen's proposal was described by local media as a "trial balloon that couldn't fly.".

Lars Løkke Rasmussen believes that the mandate given to Troels Lund Poulsen was to explore a cross-center government, and therefore, from his point of view, it makes no sense to form a government that does not include the “center” itself.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen's position is therefore crucial. If the Moderates refuse to support the VLAK government, it will be difficult for Troels Lund Poulsen to approach the King and request a mandate to form a government, as he will know beforehand that there is a high probability of a majority against him. However, if Løkke refrains from bringing down the government or agrees to negotiate with it, a minority government could emerge. According to the published negotiation schedule, Troels Lund Poulsen is scheduled to meet this evening with four parties: the Danish People's Party (right), the Denmark Democrats (right), the Radical Party (center-left), and the Moderates (center – Lars Løkke Rasmussen's party).

On the right side of the political spectrum, there appears to be a willingness to support the VLAK government from outside. Inger Støjberg, leader of the Denmark Democrats, stated that her party could be a support party for the government, but also indicated that there are issues she wants to discuss further, particularly tightening immigration policy and achieving a better balance between urban and rural areas. She also criticized Lars Løkke Rasmussen, accusing him of framing the crisis as a personal attack rather than a policy debate.

The Conservatives, however, are enthusiastic about the idea. Mona Juul, the Conservative Party leader, said that a minority government could work “very well” because this type of government has to negotiate with different parties on each issue, rather than a strong majority government easily passing its decisions through parliament. She rejects the idea that the VLAK project “cannot fly,” and says that its success also depends on Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s willingness to consider the proposed political framework.

In contrast, centrist and left-wing parties reject or strongly oppose this approach. Martin Lidegaard, leader of the Radical Party Venstre, stated that his party does not see itself supporting a government led by Venstre and the Liberal-Conservative coalition, especially if it relies on the support of the Danish Democrats and the Danish People's Party. His main argument is that his party campaigned on forming the "greenest government" in Danish history, and that the current proposal does not, in his view, provide clear funding for the announced reforms.

Pia Olsen Dyhr, leader of the Socialist People's Party, and Pelle Dragsted, leader of the Unity List, also criticized the move toward a right-wing government. Their criticisms centered on tax cuts and reforms that lacked clear funding, and the fear that the bill would come at the expense of public services or the most vulnerable groups. Dragsted described the project as the wrong path for Denmark, arguing that relying on right-wing parties at a difficult international time would create instability.

It is noteworthy that Venstre's party made significant concessions in recent days to facilitate the formation of this government. The party backtracked on previous campaign positions on three issues: it now supports a national ban on certain pesticides, it abandoned its plan to withdraw from a citizenship agreement, and it agreed to maintain development aid at 0.71 TP3T of GNI instead of reducing it to 0.51 TP3T. These concessions appear aimed at making the proposal more palatable to hesitant parties, particularly moderates, so as not to give Lars Løkke Rasmussen any pretext to refuse to have his party support a right-wing minority government.

What are the possible scenarios now?

The first is that the VLAK formula will succeed, i.e., a minority government led by Troels Lund Poulsen that relies on the support of right-wing and external parties from one issue to another.

The second scenario is that this path fails due to the rejection by Lars Løkke Rasmussen or other parties, in which case the initiative may return to Mette Frederiksen, the leader of the Social Democrats and the former/current acting prime minister according to the mandate process, to try to form a center-left government or a broader government that includes moderates, radicals and possibly left-wing parties.

The third scenario, if it is impossible to form a majority or a government that does not face an opposing majority, is that the country will head towards a new round of royal elections, and perhaps eventually to new elections if the deadlock continues.

The current picture shows that Denmark is not facing just an ordinary dispute over the distribution of ministries, but rather a larger political question: Is the country heading towards a minority right-wing government that relies on the support of conservative and right-wing populist parties, or is it returning to the project of a broad-based government in the center or center-left? The coming hours are important because the position of Lars Løkke Rasmussen and the moderates may determine whether the VLAK project will become an actual government, or just a short stop on the road to new negotiations.