Sweden faces a crucial election: Will the far-right Sweden Democrats enter government for the first time? And what impact will this have on the rise of the populist right in Europe?

party Sweden Democrats, far-right party, face a historic moment

Swedish voters head to the polls today, Sunday, September 13, in an election that could pave the way for the Sweden Democrats to enter government for the first time in the country's history, in a shift that could reshape the Swedish political landscape and give the populist right an official role within the executive branch.

The party is led by Jimmie Åkesson, who has successfully transformed the Sweden Democrats from a politically isolated party into a major pillar of the right-wing camp in recent years. In the 2022 elections, the party garnered 20,541 votes and 73 seats, becoming the largest right-wing party in parliament, ahead of the Moderate Party, which received 19,101 votes and 68 seats.

But the party did not enter the government after the 2022 elections, as a government was formed by the Conservatives, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, led by Ulf Kristersson, while the Sweden Democrats provided parliamentary support to the government from outside as part of the Tidöavtalet agreement.

Kristersson opens the door to government for Okeson

The situation changed fundamentally this year, after Kristersson announced in April that the Sweden Democrats would join the government if the Tido parties won the elections.

Kristersson said at a joint press conference with Åkesson that in such a government the party would gain significant political influence and important ministerial positions in the areas of immigration and integration. The Conservatives also announced their desire to form a government that includes the four parties that make up the current ruling camp.

Thus, the question in Sweden is no longer whether the Sweden Democrats can influence the government from the outside, but whether they will enter it and officially obtain ministerial seats.

A close race hours before the final decision

Recent polls do not give a decisive advantage to either side. The latest Infostat poll, published on September 12, showed the Tido Alliance parties—the Conservatives, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals—at 48.81%, compared to 49.61% for the main opposition parties: the Social Democrats, the Left Party, the Centre Party, and the Green Party. The institute said the 0.8-point difference was within the margin of error, noting that approximately 91% of voters remained undecided.

Another average of polls published up to September 12 shows the opposition ahead by about 2.9 percentage points, with the Social Democrats at 27.8%, the Sweden Democrats at 19%, and the Conservatives at 17.2%.

This means that a victory for the opposition or the right cannot be considered guaranteed, and that the performance of the smaller parties, particularly the Liberals who are approaching the 4% threshold for entering parliament, could be crucial in determining the shape of the next majority.

Why does the entry of the Sweden Democrats into the government represent a major shift?

The party’s entry into the government carries significance that goes beyond a mere change in the distribution of ministerial posts, because it will mean the end of a long period in which most traditional parties have avoided officially involving it in power.

In recent years, the party has become a central force in Swedish politics, and a key partner in the Tido Agreement that allowed Kristersson's government to come to power after the 2022 elections. Through the agreement, the Sweden Democrats were able to influence government policies despite remaining outside the cabinet.

Their actual entry into the government will raise their level of political influence to a new level, especially since Kristersson linked their participation to obtaining ministerial positions in immigration and integration files, which are among the issues that have made the party an influential electoral force.

Immigration and crime are at the heart of the battle

Much of the election revolves around immigration and organized crime, two issues that have become major political concerns in Sweden.

The Sweden Democrats are adopting a more hardline stance on immigration, while the ruling right wing has advocated policies aimed at limiting immigration and tightening measures to combat crime and gangs.

In contrast, the Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson is leading the opposition camp, which is seeking to regain power, in an election that appears to be more competitive than some summer polls suggested.

What will happen if the right wing wins?

If the TIDDO parties manage to achieve the necessary majority to form a government, Sweden is likely to see, for the first time, a government in which the Sweden Democrats are officially involved.

This would be the biggest political shift for the party since entering parliament, and would give Åkesson and his party direct influence over decision-making instead of merely supporting the government from the outside.

But the right’s success in the elections will not alone decide all the details, as negotiations will then begin regarding the distribution of ministerial portfolios, the government program, and the relationship between the four parties, especially since the Sweden Democrats have become a major electoral force within the same camp.

What does Anderson's victory mean?

If the opposition, led by Anderson, succeeds in overturning the result, Social Democracy will return to the premiership after four years of Kristersson's rule.

This would simultaneously be a setback for the right's attempt to move the Sweden Democrats from the position of parliamentary partner to that of government partner, and might delay the party's entry into power or force the right to reconsider its strategy for forming an alliance with it.

But the return of the Social Democrats does not necessarily mean a return to the policies of the past in Sweden; the political landscape has changed dramatically since the 2022 elections, and issues of immigration, security and defense are at the heart of the debate for most of the major parties.

The Swedish result could send a signal to Europe

The elections are attracting widespread European attention because the outcome for the Sweden Democrats will come in the context of a continued rise of right-wing and populist parties in a number of European countries.

If the party actually enters the government, Sweden will become a new example of a populist right-wing party that was isolated from power moving into the heart of the government, a development that could encourage similar right-wing forces in other European countries to demand a direct governmental role.

But a loss for the right would send a very different message: that the rise of these parties to advanced positions in opinion polls does not necessarily mean their ability to reach power, and that voters can bring center-left parties back to power even after the major shifts in political discourse on immigration and crime.

Sweden at a political crossroads

Therefore, today's election appears to be more than just a contest between Kristersson and Andersson for the premiership. The real choice also concerns the future relationship between traditional parties and the populist right in Sweden.

A victory for the right wing could make the Sweden Democrats’ entry into government a reality for the first time, and give the party a direct role in immigration and integration issues, while a victory for the opposition led by Andersson would mean postponing this step and returning the Social Democrats to power.

With the results so close, it will matter not only which camp gets the most votes, but also which parties cross the parliamentary threshold, how the 349 seats in parliament will be distributed, and who will ultimately be able to form a government with sufficient parliamentary support.

It is noteworthy that Kristersson had already settled, before the vote, a matter that had seemed unimaginable in Swedish politics years ago: if the right wing wins, the Sweden Democrats will not remain outside the government this time, but their entry into it has become an open part of the ruling camp’s plan.