<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European intelligence and security officials have warned that Russia may try to test NATO's cohesion by targeting the territory of one of the alliance's member states in the coming months, while European agencies differ on how likely this scenario is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Czech intelligence chief: Months, not years<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The head of the Czech Security and Intelligence Service, Michal Koudelka, told The Guardian that Russia might try to test NATO's cohesion over a period of "months, not years.".<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Koudelka explained that a possible scenario could take the form of a limited incursion into the territory of a NATO member state, a provocation attributed to another party, or a broad campaign to influence public opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the possibility of a limited incursion into a NATO country bordering Russia must be taken into account, but stressed at the same time that many parties are working to prevent such a scenario from occurring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Polish warning against targeting NATO territory<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Koudelka's remarks came after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned the Polish parliament that intelligence assessments indicated possible Russian plans to carry out hybrid attacks using drones and missiles against countries that support Ukraine, including Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tusk said there was a real risk of drones or other projectiles entering the territory of one or more NATO eastern flank countries and possibly causing damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that Russia might try to present any incident as "accidental" in order to weaken the alliance's willingness to respond and implement Article 5 on collective defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tusk: Moscow may test Article 5<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tusk warned that the likely aim of such provocations would be to test NATO\u2019s ability to make a unified decision, and to demonstrate that Article 5 of the alliance\u2019s treaty, which stipulates that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all members, is not guaranteed to be applied in practice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Polish Prime Minister stressed that his country would confront any threat in coordination with its allies, but said at the same time that there were currently no indications that Russia was preparing to invade Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Macron supports Polish warning<\/p>\n\n\n\n
French President Emmanuel Macron also expressed his support for Tusk's assessment, describing his warnings as credible and well-supported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The French position came in the wake of a Polish warning about the possibility of escalating Russian provocations against NATO countries, particularly those on the alliance's eastern flank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Latvia: No signs of an imminent attack<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In contrast, the head of the Latvian State Security Service, Normunds Me\u017eviets, offered a more cautious assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He told The Guardian that he saw no signs of an imminent Russian attack against a NATO country, while noting that there were indications that Moscow might be preparing to take more decisive steps in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He explained that security services are currently unable to determine whether these movements reflect preparations for a specific military operation, or whether they aim to create a state of fear and uncertainty within European societies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three intelligence agencies agree on escalating threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Guardian interviewed the heads of three European intelligence and security agencies: the Czech Security and Intelligence Service, the Latvian State Security Service, and the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite their differing assessments of the likelihood of a direct military attack on a NATO country, all three officials agreed that Russia\u2019s campaign of subversion in Europe is likely to escalate in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sweden warns of escalation but does not speak of an imminent attack<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The head of the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service, Thomas Nilsson, said that, in his assessment, Russia does not appear to be genuinely interested in negotiating peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the information reported by The Guardian does not include his confirmation that a Russian military attack on a NATO country is imminent; rather, his statements come within a broader assessment of the growing Russian threat in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moscow denies planning an attack on NATO<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Kremlin denies the existence of a Russian plan to attack a NATO member state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier that claims regarding a Russian plan to attack NATO do not correspond to reality or to Russia's intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What does the warning actually mean?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These warnings do not mean that European intelligence agencies have confirmed that there is a Russian decision to carry out an attack on a NATO country in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most specific warning came from Czech intelligence chief Koudelka, who spoke of the possibility of a limited incursion or provocation within \u00abmonths, not years,\u00bb while Latvian security chief Mesvetis confirmed there were no indications of an imminent attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, the available data speaks of a possible scenario that is being prepared for and anticipated, not of a confirmed Russian attack or a specific date for it.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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